Democrats are talking about what they’re going to do if they win the Presidency and the Senate in 2020 while keeping the House of Representatives. It’s mostly the 2020 presidential contenders right now releasing policy positions and what their priorities would be in the new Congress. I wanted to give my take.
Taking control of the Senate will probably be the hardest lift out of the three goals. The House will likely stay in Democratic hands since incumbents usually win, but Donald Trump will be back on the ballot in 2020 which means that all states that he is likely to win are going to be really hard for Democrats to win a Senate seat in since no one splits their tickets anymore. Take Indiana for instance, former Senator Evan Bayh ran in 2016, he generally had leads in the polls, and then lost badly. That means that Democrats will likely lose their Senate seat in Alabama. They currently have 47 Senate seats, but one is held by Doug Jones of Alabama who only won because he was up against a child molester in the 2017 special election to replace former Attorney General Jeff Sessions. He barely won too so the likelihood of him keeping his seat is very, very low.
That means that Democrats will have to pick up four senate seats to win a 50 seat majority in the Senate and with the Vice President breaking the tie. This will be a herculean task as there aren’t that many swing state senators up for re-election next year, but lets say that they do it.
If both houses of Congress and the Presidency are controlled by Democrats they will still have difficulties passing legislation since they will be subject to the filibuster. Since their margin is likely to be razor thin, if even one Senator disagrees with legislation then the vote will fail. The majority party can axe the filibuster with only 51 votes, but it would require all 50 senators plus the Vice President to agree to do this. Many of whom are traditionalists who don’t want to see the Senate minority de-fanged of their only tool to stop legislation they don’t like when they are back in the minority in the future.
So even if they win the Presidency and the Senate, they won’t have an agenda to do anything. They could pass legislation through the reconciliation process which is immune to the filibuster, but reconciliation can only be used for items that effect the budget so regulations are off the table. That makes any such plan for Medicare for All, reforming the political system, or a Green New Deal unattainable. If you like policy and are wondering why I haven’t proposed one policy item yet in this essay, this is why. Unless the filibuster goes the way of the dodo bird, there is no agenda for a newly elected Democratic Congress and President.
Republicans fight dirty, Democrats should too. Democrats who don’t want to eliminate the filibuster still believe in finding bipartisan compromise, but Mitch McConnell, current Senate Majority Leader, has only one item on his agenda, winning the next election, and he does so at all costs which means the end of finding bipartisan consensus on big ticket issues. There is no compromising with Republicans because they value party purity above compromise and actually governing. Democrats do believe in compromise, but if the other side won’t negotiate in good faith then there’s no point in trying. If they win a razor thin majority, they should wipe the filibuster from the rulebook and pass their agenda of expanding voting rights, access to health care, and bigger clean energy programs.
I would even argue that they should go a step further and prioritize full statehood for Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia. Getting four extra Senators would be a huge boon to the Democrats going forward and since there are more Democrats in both areas, that’s how they would vote. It would also be a way of doing a lot of good for American citizens. Puerto Rico is extremely poor and opening them up to full Medicaid funding, federal grants, and other benefits of statehood would go a long way in helping the American citizens improve their lives.
Okay, here it is, my preferred agenda for if everything goes perfectly in the 2020 elections and they have full control of Congress and the Presidency in 2021 with no filibuster:
- Reform the electoral college
- Pass the current “For the People Act” (HR 1) to expand voting rights and limit gerrymandering.
- Full statehood for DC and Puerto Rico.
- Add two Supreme Court Justices and finally let Ruth Bader Ginsburg retire.
These items would tip the scales towards Democrats going forward. They have massive disadvantages in both the House and Senate due to gerrymandering and the fact that the electoral college favors small states. The Supreme Court is also likely to be conservative leaning for the next 50 years due to the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch. Appointing three liberal leaning judges would tip the scales and protect liberal priorities from being shot down.
